There has been no shortage of drama so far in the 2019/20 European Champions Cup. Eight teams have navigated their way through the pool phase and arrived in the knockout stage believing they have a chance of going all the way.

This report aims to analyse key individual statistics and identify three players who have had the greatest impact for their teams so far. The three players selected are; Virimi Vakatawa; John Cooney; and Josh van der Flier.

Virimi Vakatawa – Racing 92 – Centre

Vakatawa has delivered several scintillating performances for Racing 92 in the European Champions Cup this season. Having played in all six fixtures for his club, he was awarded player of the match three times. Vakatawa’s key stats for the for the pool stage:

• Vakatawa spent 450 minutes on the pitch, starting every game in the centre position.
• Scored a total of four tries and had a direct assist in one.
• Ranks first in number of defenders beaten with 39, which is 12 more than George Moala (Clermont).
• Ranked first in total number of clean breaks with 14, tied with Teddy Thomas (Racing 92) and Olly Thorley (Gloucester).
• Ranked third in total number of offloads with 10, three behind joint leaders Taqele Naiyaravoro (Northampton) and Sofiane Guitoune (Toulouse).
• Has made 65 carries in total and gained a total of 396 meters for Racing 92.

Analysis

On average, Vakatawa beats one defender with 60% of his carries, and beats an average of one defender every 11.5 minutes. He gains an average of 6.1 meters per carry.

Vakatawa’s ability to both beat defenders and offload in the tackle makes him a nightmare for teams to cope with. This is one of the many reasons Racing 92 currently lie second in total number of tries scored this season (26).

John Cooney – Ulster – Scrum-Half

Cooney has been in sensational form this season in the European Champions Cup and has been instrumental in Ulster’s march to the knockout stage. He played in all six fixtures and was awarded player of the match on two occasions. Cooney’s standout stats are as follows:

• Cooney spent 457 minutes on the pitch, starting at scrum-half.
• Ranks first in total number of points scored with 71.
• Ranks fourth in total number of tries scored with 5, tied with Alivereti Raka (Clermont), George Moala (Clermont) and Romain Ntamack (Toulouse).
• Scored 8/9 penalties and 11/15 conversions.

Analysis

John Cooney has scored 55% of Ulster’s total points in Europe (129). He has scored an average of 11.8 points per game and has been worth one point per 6.4 minutes spent on the pitch. His overall kicking accuracy from the tee is 79.2%, scoring 88.9% of penalties and 73.3% of conversions.

Cooney is a unique talent in that he plays scrum-half, he takes the kicks at goal and is prolific in terms of scoring tries. Ulster won two of their pool games by a single point and Cooney kicked the winner in both games in the closing stages. He is crucial to Ulster’s hopes of progressing to the semi-final stage.

Josh van der Flier – Leinster – Back Row

Josh van der Flier has had a major impact on Leinster’s European Campaign and was a key reason Leinster conceded the fewest points (76) over the first six games. He played in every pool game and earned one player of the match performance against Northampton. Van der Flier’s stats are as follows:

• Van der Flier spent 445 minutes on the pitch, starting in the back row.
• Ranks first in total number of tackles made with 98.
• Ranks first in total number of successful tackles made with 93.
• Ranks first in total number of turnovers won with 7, tied with Fritz Lee (Clermont), Bundee Aki (Connacht), Ben Curry (Sale) and Joe Tekori (Toulouse).
• Made 28 carries for his team with a total of 7 clean breaks.

Analysis

Josh van der Flier has been successful in 94.9% of his tackles in Europe. He has made one successful tackle for every 4.9 minutes spent on the pitch. He has reclaimed possession for his team on seven occasions, with an average of 1.2 turnovers per game. Converted 25% of his carries into clean breaks.

Van der Flier has displayed an immense work rate which is shown by his tackling statistics. Only three players come close to van der Flier in terms of successful tackles made. James Ryan (Leinster), C.J. Stander (Munster) and Dave Ewers (Exeter) have all made 82 successful tackles. Van der Flier, along with the rest of the Leinster pack, have consistently shown why they are the outright favourites.

Match Details

Competition: European Champions Cup Pool 4, Round 6.

Venue: Allianz Park, London.

Time and Date: 13:00, Sunday 19/01/2020.

Weather Forecast: 6°C. Sunny. Wind 9 km/h.

Permutations

Saracens require a bonus point win to ensure qualification for the quarter-final stage as one of the highest ranked second place teams.

Racing 92 have already guaranteed a quarter-final berth, however, a high scoring win would ensure a home quarter-final.

Team Lineups

Saracens: Elliot Daly, Sean Maitland, Duncan Taylor, Brad Barritt (capt), Rotimi Segun, Owen Farrell, Ben Spencer, Mako Vunipola, Jamie George, Vincent Koch, Mario Itoje, George Kruis, Jackson Wray, Ben Earl, Billy Vunipola.

Replacements: Jack Singleton, Richard Barrington, Titi Lamositele, Will Skelton, Calum Clark, Tom Whiteley, Alex Lozowski, Alex Lewington.

Racing 92: Brice Dulin, Louis Dupichot, Virimi Vakatawa, Henry Chavancy (capt), Juan Imhoff, Finn Russell, Teddy Iribaren, Eddy Ben Arous, Teddy Baubigny, Cedate Gomes Sa, Donnacha Ryan, Boris Palu, Wenceslas Lauret, Bernard Le Roux, Yoan Tanga-Mangene.

Replacements: Kevin Le Guen, Hassane Kolingar, Ali Oz, Fabien Sanconnie, Baptiste Chouzenoux, Maxime Machenaud, Francois Trinh-Duc, Olivier Klemenczak.

Squad Details

Saracens

• Jamie George (Prop), Mako Vunipola (Prop), Mario Itoje (Lock), George Kruis (Lock), Billy Vunipola (Back Row), Ben Spencer (Scrum Half), Owen Farrell (Fly-Half), and Elliot Daly (Full-Back) were all involved for England in the 2019 World Cup in Japan.
• Vincent Koch (Prop) was a member of the 2019 South African World Cup winning team.
• Nick Tompkins (Centre) was named in the Welsh Six Nations Squad.
• Sean Maitland (Winger) was named in the Scottish Six Nations squad.
• Welsh international Liam Williams (Full-Back) is out injured.
• Rhys Carre (Prop) is suspended.

Racing 92

• Camille Chat (Prop), Bernard Le Roux (Lock), Boris Palu (Lock), Romain Taofifenua (Lock), Virimi Vakatawa (Centre), and Teddy Thomas (Winger) were named in the French Six Nations squad.
• Finn Russell was named in the Scottish Six Nations squad.
• Ben Tameifuna (Prop) was part of the Tongan 2019 World Cup Squad.
• Simon Zebo (Full-Back) is out injured.

Form

Saracens

Saracens have won four out of their last five matches, with their latest triumph coming last week away at Ospreys in a hard-fought battle where Rhys Carre was sent off in the 4^th minute. Saracens have won five in a row at home and their last defeat at Allianz Park was a 25 – 27 loss to Northampton on 19/10/2019.

In the European Champions Cup this season, Saracens have won 3, lost 2, and picked up 2 bonus points along the way. They currently lie in second position, 8 points behind Racing 92.

In the Premiership, it’s looking increasingly likely that Saracens will be relegated due to a technicality.

Racing 92

Racing 92 have won five out of their last five matches, with their latest win coming last week at home to Munster. Racing 92 demonstrated their their potential as tournament winners as they pulled away in style in the final ten minutes.

Racing 92’s away form has been erratic this season, having played 8, won 4, lost 3, and drawn 1. They have won their last 2 games away from home.

In the European Champions Cup this season, Racing 92 have won 4 and drawn 1. The drawn game came away at Munster where the Irishmen scored a try in the final 5 minutes to share the points. They currently lie in first place, 8 points ahead of Saracens.

In the Top 14, Racing 92 currently lie in 5^th position, 15 points off the leaders, but are still in contention to qualify for the quarter finals. They have won three in a row domestically.

Previous Meetings

Racing 92 convincingly beat Saracens 30 – 10 in the reverse fixture on 17/11/2019, with tries from Vakatawa, Thomas, Russell and Lauret. The margin would have been greater if their kickers had been more accurate (missed 1 penalty and 2 conversions).

In 2015/16, Saracens were victorious over Racing 92 in the final of the European Champions Cup, with Owen Farrell kicking seven out of seven penalties in a 21 – 9 win.

In 2014/15, Saracens also beat Racing 92 12 – 11 in the quarter-finals, with Maxime Machenaud scoring all eleven points for the Parisians. Machenaud is on the bench for Racing 92 on Sunday.

Pre-Team Release Betting

• Win/Lose/Draw
  • Saracens 2/9. Racing 92 7/2. Draw 25/1.
• Handicap
  • Saracens (-12) @ 10/11. Racing 92 (+12) @ 10/11. Draw (-12) @ 22/1
• Handicap (No Draw)
  • Saracens (+12.5) @ 10/11. Racing 92 (-12.5) @ 4/5

Post-Team Release Betting

• Win/Lose/Draw
  • Saracens 1/5. Racing 92 4/1. Draw 25/1.
• Handicap
  • Saracens (-12) @ 10/11. Racing 92 (+12) @ 10/11. Draw (-12) @ 22/1
• Handicap (No Draw)
  • Saracens (-12.5) @ 10/11. Racing 92 (+12.5) @ 4/5

Player Watch

Racing 92 – Virimi Vakatawa and Finn Russell are two of the most exciting players to watch in Europe this season. The explosive Vakatawa was in superb form at the World Cup for France and has maintained it all season for Racing 92. He seems to link up especially well with Finn Russell in midfield. If Racing 92 are going to upset the odds this Sunday, Vakatawa and Russell must perform again.

Saracens – When the Vunipola brother are on form, teams cannot seem to cope with Saracens or England. Both Billy and Mako Vunipola are two battering rams that are relentless in their efforts to gain yards and bully their way into dangerous positions. The Racing 92 pack is relatively inexperienced in terms of internationals and if the Vunipola brothers gain momentum, they may not be stopped.

Stat Attack

Racing 92 are currently 2nd in the total number of tries scored in the European Champions Cup. The current run of tries in the five matches so far is: 4 – 3 – 6 – 6 – 4.

Prediction

In the reverse fixture in November, Racing ran out comfortable 20-point winners. The bookies have put a 12-point handicap on Racing 92, however, a 32 point swing doesn’t seem likely given the conditions and the midfield Racing have selected.

Racing 92 Alternative 2-Way Handicap (+7.5) @ 11/8 on Betfair

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